Structural reliability and risk analysis

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Cuprins curs:

1. INTRODUCTION TO RANDOM VARIABLES THEORY 5
1.1. Data samples 5
1.2. Sample mean and sample variance 8
1.3. Probability 8
1.4. Random variables 9
1.5. Mean and variance of a distribution 10
2. DISTRIBUTIONS OF PROBABILITY 13
2.1. Normal distribution 13
2.2. Log-normal distribution 16
2.3. Extreme value distributions 19
2.3.1. Gumbel distribution for maxima in 1 year 20
2.3.2. Gumbel distribution for maxima in N years 22
2.4. Mean recurrence interval 25
2.5. Second order moment models 27
3. STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY ANALYSIS 30
3.1. The basic reliability problem 30
3.2. Special case: normal random variables 32
3.3. Special case: log-normal random variables 33
3.4. Partial safety coefficients 35
4. SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS 37
4.1. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) 37
4.2. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) 38
4.3. Earthquake source characterization 39
4.4. Predictive relationships (attenuation relations) 41
4.5. Temporal uncertainty 42
4.6. Probability computations 42
5. INTRODUCTION TO RANDOM PROCESSES THEORY 44
5.1. Background 44
5.2. Average properties for describing internal structure of a random process 45
5.3. Main simplifying assumptions 47
5.4. Probability distribution 51
5.5. Other practical considerations 53
6. POWER SPECTRAL DENSITY OF STATIONARY RANDOM FUNCTIONS 54
6.1. Background and definitions 54
6.2. Properties of first and second time derivatives 57
6.3. Frequency content indicators 57
6.4. Wide-band and narrow-band random process 59
6.4.1. Wide-band processes. White noise 59
6.4.2. Narrow band processes 61
6.5. Note on the values of frequency content indicators 63
Structural Reliability and Risk Analysis - Lecture Notes 4
7. DYNAMIC RESPONSE OF SDOF SYSTEMS TO RANDOM PROCESSES 69
7.1. Introduction 69
7.2. Single degree of freedom (SDOF) systems 70
7.2.1. Time domain 71
7.2.2. Frequency domain 71
7.3. Excitation-response relations for stationary random processes 73
7.3.1. Mean value of the response 73
7.3.2. Input-output relation for spectral densities 74
7.3.3. Mean square response 74
7.4. Response of a SDOF system to stationary random excitation 75
7.4.1. Response to band limited white noise 75
7.4.2. SDOF systems with low damping 76
7.4.3. Distribution of the maximum (peak) response values 80
8. STOCHASTIC MODELLING OF WIND ACTION 87
8.1. General 87
8.2 Reference wind velocity and reference velocity pressure 87
8.3 Probabilistic assessment of wind hazard for buildings and structures 88
8.4 Terrain roughness and Variation of the mean wind with height 92
8.5. Stochastic modelling of wind turbulence 94
8.6 Gust factor for velocity pressure 96
8.7 Exposure factor for peak velocity pressure 97
References 99

Extras din curs:

1.1. Data samples

If one performs a statistical experiment one usually obtains a sequence of observations. A typical example is shown in Table 1.1. These data were obtained by making standard tests for concrete compressive strength. We thus have a sample consisting of 30 sample values, so that the size of the sample is n=30.

Table 1.1. Sample of 30 values of the compressive strength of concrete, daN/cm2

320

380

340

350

340

350

370

390

370

320

350

360

380

360

350

420

400

350

360

330

360

360

370

350

370

400

360

340

360

390

The statistical relevance of the information contained in Table 1.1 can be revealed if one shall order the data in ascending order in Table 1.2 (320, 330 and so on). The number of occurring figures from Table 1.1 is listed in the second column of Table 1.2. It indicates how often the corresponding value x occurs in the sample and is called absolute frequency of that value x in the sample. Dividing it by the size n of the sample one obtains the relative frequency listed in the third column of Table 1.2.

If for a certain value x one sums all the absolute frequencies corresponding to the sample values which are smaller than or equal to that x, one obtains the cumulative frequency corresponding to that x. This yields the values listed in column 4 of Table 1.2. Division by the size n of the sample yields the cumulative relative frequency in column 5 of Table 1.2.

The graphical representation of the sample values is given by histograms of relative frequencies and/or of cumulative relative frequencies (Figure 1.1 and Figure 1.2).

If a certain numerical value does not occur in the sample, its frequency is 0. If all the n values of the sample are numerically equal, then this number has the frequency n and the relative frequency is 1. Since these are the two extreme possible cases, one has:

- the relative frequency is at least equal to 0 and at most equal to 1;

- the sum of all relative frequencies in a sample equals 1.

Structural Reliability and Risk Analysis - Lecture Notes 6

Table 1.2. Frequencies of values of random variable listed in Table 1.1

Compressive strength

Absolute frequency

Relative frequency

Cumulative frequency

Cumulative relative frequency

320

2

0.067

2

0.067

330

1

0.033

3

0.100

340

3

0.100

6

0.200

350

6

0.200

12

0.400

360

7

0.233

19

0.633

370

4

0.133

23

0.767

380

2

0.067

25

0.833

390

2

0.067

27

0.900

400

2

0.067

29

0.967

410

0

0.000

29

0.967

420

1

0.033

30

1.000

0.000.050.100.150.200.25320330340350360370380390400410420x, daN/cm2Relative frequency

Figure 1.1. Histogram of relative frequencies

Structural Reliability and Risk Analysis - Lecture Notes 7

0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0320330340350360370380390400410420x, daN/cm2Cumulative relative frequency

Figure 1.2. Histogram of cumulative relative frequencies

If a sample consists of too many numerically different sample values, the process of grouping may simplify the tabular and graphical representations, as follows (Kreyszig, 1979).

A sample being given, one chooses an interval I that contains all the sample values. One subdivides I into subintervals, which are called class intervals. The midpoints of these subintervals are called class midpoints. The sample values in each such subinterval are said to form a class. The number of sample values in each such subinterval is called the corresponding class frequency. Division by the sample size n gives the relative class frequency. This frequency is called the frequency function of the grouped sample, and the corresponding cumulative relative class frequency is called the distribution function of the grouped sample.

If one chooses few classes, the distribution of the grouped sample values becomes simpler but a lot of information is lost, because the original sample values no longer appear explicitly. When grouping the sample values the following rules should be obeyed (Kreyszig, 1979):

o all the class intervals should have the same length;

Bibliografie:

Aldea, A., Arion, C., Ciutina, A., Cornea, T., Dinu, F., Fulop, L., Grecea, D., Stratan, A., Vacareanu, R., 2004. Constructii amplasate in zone cu miscari seismice puternice, coordonatori Dubina, D., Lungu, D., Ed. Orizonturi Universitare, Timisoara 2003, , ISBN 973-8391-90-3, 479 p.

- Benjamin, J R, & Cornell, C A, Probability, statistics and decisions for civil engineers, John Wiley, New York, 1970

- Cornell, C.A., A Probability-Based Structural Code, ACI-Journal, Vol. 66, pp. 974-985, 1969

- Ditlevsen, O. & Madsen, H.O., Structural Reliability Methods. Monograph, (First edition published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd, Chichester, 1996, ISBN 0 471 96086 1), Internet edition 2.2.5 http://www.mek.dtu.dk/staff/od/books.htm, 2005

- EN 1991-1-4, Eurocode 1: Actions on Structures - Part 1-4 : General Actions - Wind Actions, CEN, 2005

- FEMA 356, Prestandard and Commentary for the Seismic Rehabilitation of Buildings, FEMA & ASCE, 2000

- Ferry Borges, J.& Castanheta, M., Siguranta structurilor - traducere din limba engleza, Editura Tehnica, 1974

- FEMA, HAZUS - Technical Manual 1999. Earthquake Loss Estimation Methodology, 3 Vol.

- Hahn, G. J. & Shapiro, S. S., Statistical Models in Engineering - John Wiley & Sons, 1967

- Kreyszig, E., Advanced Engineering Mathematics - fourth edition, John Wiley & Sons, 1979

- Kramer, L. S., Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering, Prentice Hall, 1996

- Lungu, D. & Ghiocel, D., Metode probabilistice in calculul constructiilor, Editura Tehnica, 1982

- Lungu, D., Vacareanu, R., Aldea, A., Arion, C., Advanced Structural Analysis, Conspress, 2000

- Madsen, H. O., Krenk, S., Lind, N. C., Methods of Structural Safety, Prentice-Hall, 1986

- Melchers, R. E., Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, John Wiley & Sons, 2nd Edition, 1999

- MTCT, CR0-2005 Cod de proiectare. Bazele proiectarii structurilor in constructii, 2005

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Limbi Străine
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structural reliability, risk analysis
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Facultatea de Inginerie In Limbi Straine , Universitatea Tehnica de Constructii din Bucuresti
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